Choosing the next market is a decision many brands make on instinct – a large economy, a distributor who called, a marketplace that is easy to open. A structured approach does not remove judgement, but it makes the reasoning explicit and comparable.
1. Agree the criteria before the candidates
Decide what matters for your business before looking at countries: category demand, price level, competitive intensity, language and content effort, logistics, regulation and your existing presence. Weight the criteria according to your strategy.
2. Separate attractiveness from fit
A market can be attractive – large and growing – and still be a poor fit for your products, price position or capabilities. Score the two dimensions separately. Markets that score well on both are candidates; markets that score well on only one need a specific reason.
3. Estimate the economics per market
Revenue potential is not enough. Estimate contribution per market with realistic prices, marketplace fees, fulfilment and advertising costs. Differences in price levels and costs can reverse a ranking based on market size.
4. Decide the channel and model
The same market can be entered through a marketplace, a distributor, retail partners or direct sales – each with different investment, control and risk. The choice affects both the economics and how quickly you can learn.
5. Turn the ranking into a sequence
Launching everywhere at once rarely works. Plan a sequence that fits your capacity, starts with markets where you can learn quickly, and reuses what is built – translations, content, logistics – for the next markets.
Write down the assumptions behind the ranking. After six months, compare them with actual results and adjust the sequence – that is where the approach pays off.